Asian elephant · No. 11 of 22
The Trade That Refuses To Happen
Raja has had two final birthday parties and is still in Saint Louis.
The Deal
The Grades
Both
Announced December 2024. Still not executed. This is what one in three trades looks like from the inside.
The Breakdown
Peer-reviewed analysis of AZA transfer recommendations puts the completion rate for a Send To recommendation at somewhere between 57% and 65%. Roughly one in three announced trades in this sport never actually happens. Raja is what that statistic looks like when it has a name.
The move was announced in December 2024, slated for late 2024 or early 2025, and then pushed. The zoo has described the situation as a holding pattern. Saint Louis has now held a final birthday celebration for him more than once. He remains at River's Edge.
There is nothing scandalous here. Elephant moves require facility readiness, herd dynamics on both ends, transport logistics, and veterinary sign-off, and any one of those can slip a year. But it is a useful reminder for anyone reading a transfer announcement: an announcement is not a trade. A plane is a trade.
